Everthing you need to know about MLB totals
When you visit your preferred baseball betting platform or head to the sportsbook to place a wager on a Major League Baseball “totals” outcome, the focus isn’t on who wins or loses the game. What truly matters is the total number of runs scored by both teams by the end of the game. This straightforward approach is what makes MLB totals betting such a popular choice among baseball enthusiasts.
With the expansion of sports betting options across the U.S., totals bets in baseball are becoming increasingly popular. This is because sports betting platforms typically offer more favorable odds on the over-under for baseball games.
While baseball now boasts a plethora of measurable statistics, runs-per-game totals remain a fundamental aspect that bettors can easily grasp and rely on.
However, despite its apparent simplicity, this type of betting demands careful analysis and prediction from one game to the next. Unlike NFL betting where you can reasonably predict a team’s scoring based on regular offensive statistics, baseball pitching performances can vary significantly from one game to another. This is why staying well-informed is crucial.
What is Baseball totals Betting?
Baseball totals betting involves predicting whether the total number of runs scored in a game will be over or under the oddsmaker’s set total. It doesn’t matter which team wins or loses. While many still stick to traditional moneyline bets, spread betting in baseball, or runline bets, is less common.
Sportsbooks usually offer moneyline, runline, and total bets for each MLB game. For example, you might see a line like: Red Sox at Yankees O/U 9. Your task is to decide if the teams will score more or less than nine runs combined. Typically, O/U odds are around -110, but they can vary. Odds of -110 mean you’d have to bet $110 to win $100.
How Do Bookmakers Calculate Baseball Totals?
Bookmakers have a lot to consider when setting the totals line for baseball games. While the odds may seem consistent overall, they take into account various factors. One of the biggest factors is the starting pitchers. The difference between a Cy Young winner and a player with a poor record can greatly impact the totals number.
When two top pitchers face each other, the totals number is usually set lower compared to when less skilled pitchers are on the mound. It’s crucial for serious bettors to review the starting pitcher list for the day. However, there are other factors that also play a role in calculating totals and should be considered in your betting strategy:
Weather: If the forecast predicts extreme conditions like strong winds or low temperatures, it’s wise to reconsider betting on the over.
The Ballpark: Certain ballparks, such as Fenway Park, Wrigley Field, or Coors Field, are known to be more favorable for hitters. In such cases, you might want to seriously consider placing an over bet. On the other hand, if it’s a “pitchers park,” it’s worth looking at the under.
Umpires: It’s important to do your research on umpires. Some umpires have a stricter strike zone than others. If you find an umpire known for calling more strikes, it might be a good opportunity to bet on the over.
Injuries: Keep an eye on any sudden lineup changes or injuries. If a key player like Mike Trout is unexpectedly scratched from the lineup, it could affect your over bet. Stay updated by following trusted reporters on Twitter for the latest information.
By considering these factors, you can make more informed decisions when betting on baseball totals.
What occurs if the game concludes in a tie?
What if the game ends in a tie? Let’s say the Red Sox and Yankees are playing, and the total score is set at 9. You place a bet on the over at -110. Now, what happens if the final score is 5-4, 6-3, or even 9-0? Well, here’s the good news, my friend – you don’t lose! In this case, it’s called a “push,” and the sportsbooks will refund your bet.
Sportsbooks are clever when it comes to setting odds for totals. They take into account past performances and future probabilities to minimize the chances of a push. In baseball games, the most common total runs number is seven. That’s why you rarely see a book listing a totals number at exactly 7. Instead, they’ll set it at 7.5 to avoid the dreaded push.
However, sportsbooks also want to encourage as much betting as possible. They know that adding a .5 “hook” to the totals line might discourage some wagers on the over-under aspect of the game. It’s a delicate balance. Sharp bettors, who are experienced and knowledgeable, are often more attracted to straight totals lines without the .5, even if it means a slightly lower payout.
Is there a surefire MLB betting system that actually works?
Well, that’s a topic that sparks quite the debate among baseball bettors. With the abundance of statistics available in the game today, it’s hard to find a foolproof system that guarantees success. When it comes to betting on the totals line, it all comes down to good old-fashioned research and predicting the numbers for each game. That’s why applying a rigid “system” to baseball totals can be quite challenging.
In the world of baseball betting, the most common run total is seven. Once you grasp this number, it’s crucial to delve into the details of the pitchers, bullpens, and daily batting lineups. A one-size-fits-all approach is simply too risky when it comes to MLB totals betting. So, buckle up and get ready to put in the work if you want to come out on top in the unpredictable world of baseball betting.
Crunching the Numbers for MLB Implied Totals
Imagine the Colorado Rockies and L.A. Dodgers facing off with a totals line of 9 for the game. The Dodgers are favored at -140 to win, while the Rockies are the underdogs at +130. To calculate the implied runs for each team, you can use a simple formula. For the favorite, it’s (ML/(ML-100) x run total, and for the underdog, it’s (100/(ML+100) x run total.
Dodgers calculation: (-140/(-140-100) = 0.583. Multiply by 9, and you get a 5.25 implied run total.
Rockies calculation: (100/(130+100) = 0.4347. Multiply by 9, and you get a 3.91 implied run total.
Adding them up gives you 9.16 runs, indicating that the over would be a more appealing bet for the sharp bettor. It may seem like a task for math enthusiasts, but many baseball-loving math geeks out there profit nicely from totals bets.
Additional Tips to Consider When Wagering on Baseball Totals
We’ve already covered some important factors to keep in mind when betting on baseball totals, but let’s delve into some more specific details.
During the 2019 MLB season, which consisted of 162 games, the most common run total was 7, occurring 11.3% of the time. Following closely behind was 9, appearing in 10.3% of games. On the other hand, the least frequent run total, ranging up to 12, was 4, happening only 4.8% of the time.
In terms of home runs per game, Yankee Stadium took the crown in 2019 with an average of 1.37 homers per contest. This can be attributed to the presence of power hitters like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the Yankees’ lineup. However, the Oakland Coliseum, known for its pitcher-friendly environment, had the second-lowest home run rate at .73 per game, just slightly ahead of the Giants’ AT&T Park, which recorded an average of .70 homers per game.
Interestingly, Sundays tend to be lower-scoring days in MLB games. Many managers opt to give their veteran players a well-deserved break after a demanding week of action, resulting in fewer runs being scored.
To sum it up, becoming successful in baseball totals betting requires a significant amount of research and analysis. So you can bet on MLB totals with peace of mind here. Good luck and have fun.
At Price per Head, we offers specialized services for Bookies aiming to establish a strong online presence. We grant access to cutting-edge user tracking and accounting software. Please note: Price Per Head neither processes nor holds any wager-related financial transactions. Furthermore, our software does not facilitate or act as a conduit for such transactions.
